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Market size calculator: TAM, SAM and SOM

The whole market, the part you can reach and the revenue of your first year. We count the last one bottom-up, from how many people search for what you sell.

Size the market with Fox

Filled in from a real check of a coffee-to-go idea in the Moscow region, in roubles · October 8, 2026change any number

TAMThe whole market

Market estimate, bn ₽ a year

SAMThe part you can reach

The coffee check found no published estimate of this exact niche, so the circle is dashed.

SOMFirst-year revenue

Buying searches a month"coffee to go" and its variants, search dataConversion from a search, %our default assumptionPurchase, ₽Purchases a month

Months a customer stays → in the first year: 5.8 moCustomers arrive all year long, so in the first year each one buys for only part of their lifetime.

145 bn ₽TAM, the whole market

no estimateSAM, your part

4,045customers in the first year

17,632 ₽revenue per customer a year

71.3 m ₽SOM, first-year revenue

customers a year = 16,853 searches × 12 × 2% = 4,045

revenue per customer in the first year = 190 ₽ × 16 a month × 5.8 mo = 17,632 ₽

SOM = 4,045 × 17,632 ₽ = 71,321,440 ₽

TAM = the published estimate: 145 bn ₽ · SAM: no estimate

Published estimates

Where the TAM comes from

The check takes estimates from open publications and shows each with its source and date. Only the SOM is its own calculation.

145–148 bn ₽

The expected size of Russia's coffee-to-go market in 2025, after growth of 15 to 18% (a Russian-language article).

tenchat.ru · May 14, 2025 · the coffee-to-go market, Russia

102.7 bn ₽

Russia's coffee-to-go market at the end of 2023, up 21% on the year (a Russian-language article).

fontanka.ru · December 7, 2024 · the coffee-to-go market, Russia

16,853 a month

Searches for coffee to go and 3 related phrases; 98% of them carry an intent to buy.

wordstat.yandex.ru · October 8, 2026 · the basis of the SOM

Why bottom-up

Three rules we count by

SOM from demand, never from a share

"1% of the market" is the most common mistake in business plans. We start from real searches and an honest conversion rate.

No source, no number

TAM and SAM come only from publications with a link and a date. When there is no estimate, the circle stays dashed.

A first year is not a full year

Customers come gradually. So first-year revenue counts only the months each customer actually has to buy.

The market is sized. What about demand and competitors?

A full check in a minute gives you nine axes, the sources and the unit economics. Free.

Check an idea How to do a market analysis

Questions

What are TAM, SAM and SOM?

TAM is the whole market in money. SAM is the part your geography and product can reach. SOM is what you will really earn in your first year, often well under 1% of TAM. More in the glossary: TAM, SAM, SOM.

How do I calculate market size?

Top-down, from published estimates; bottom-up, as buyers × purchase × frequency. It is a good sign when both numbers land close. Step by step in the guide How to do a market analysis.

Where does the 2% conversion come from?

It is our careful assumption for buying searches: out of a hundred people who search for coffee to go, two become your customers. Change it if you know your own rate.

Why is the example in roubles?

It is a real check the system ran on 8 October 2026 for a coffee-to-go idea near Moscow, and the calculator starts from its numbers as the report has them. Type your own and the formulas work the same in any currency, though the sums keep the ₽ sign.

How is market size different from market capacity?

Market size is what people already buy; capacity is what they could buy at full saturation. To decide whether to launch, the size and your SOM matter more: in the coffee check above, the calculator shows how small the reachable part of a large market is. The term in the glossary: market size.

The example shows two market estimates that are far apart. Which one should I trust?

Fox They do not contradict each other: 102.7 bn ₽ is Russia's coffee-to-go market at the end of 2023, and 145-148 bn ₽ is the expected size in 2025. Both are the whole market, the TAM, and for a launch decision your bottom-up SOM matters more. Take the estimate closest to your launch year, then move on to the SOM.

My SOM came out tiny compared to the market. Did I do something wrong?

Fox Probably not: real first-year revenue is always hundreds of times smaller than the market. The real mistake would be taking a share like 1% of the market, the most common mistake in business plans, which is why the SOM starts from real searches. Just check that the conversion and the purchase you typed are honest.

There is no published estimate for my niche. What do I put in SAM?

Fox You can leave SAM without an estimate: TAM and SAM come only from publications with a link and a date, and when there is none the circle stays dashed. To get a rough figure, enter the share you can reach by geography and segment, say one city and only morning coffee to go. Then base the decision on the SOM.

Customers will not all show up in month one. Does the calculator account for that?

Fox Yes. Customers come gradually, so first-year revenue counts only the months each customer actually has to buy, not a full year. You enter how many months a customer usually stays, and the calculator shortens it for the first year. Enter an honest lifetime and watch how the SOM moves.